P2: Possibilities for raising wheat (Triticum aestivum l.) Productivity to improve food security under climate change

Description

With a population of 110 million and growing at annual rate of 2.5%, Ethiopia is the second-most populous country in Africa (Worldometers, 2018). Agriculture is the mainstay of the Ethiopian economy, contributing 41% of the country’s gross domestic product, 84% of the total exports, and 80% of all employment in the country (Matousa et al., 2013). A substantial segment of the population (29%) is still undernourished although food security has considerably improved compared to a decade ago (40%) (FAO, 2017). Despite the challenges, agriculture-led economic growth, linked to improved livelihoods and food, can be a permanent solution to Ethiopia's chronic poverty and food insecurity (USAID, 2019). Wheat is one of the four strategic crops for Ethiopia and the country is the third largest producer in Africa (FAO, 2018). The average national yield of 2.82 tons ha-1 (CSA, 2019) is lower than even the world average of 3.4 tons ha-1 (FAO, 2018). The demand for wheat products has increased steadily in the country due to lifestyle changes and increased income. 1.7 million tons are imported annually to meet the demand of 6.7 million tons (EPA, 2020), although acreage (7.8%) and productivity (3.2%) improved annually (FAO, 2018). The government launched a new initiative to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat through enhancing productivity on the existing farms and expanding production in three lowland river basins. Narrowing yield gaps on the existing farms and formulating efficient packages for the new areas offer an opportunity to realize the proposed initiative and enhance food security. Understanding and quantifying yield gaps offer the most effective and efficient means of closing the yield gap by using water and nutrients more efficiently (Hatfield and Walthall, 2015). Moreover, ensuring sustainable improvement in wheat production requires considering the impacts of climate change and possible adaptation measures that help mitigate negative impacts. Wheat is by far the most vulnerable cereal to climate change and projected negative impacts show that eastern Africa could lose about two thirds of wheat productivity by 2100 (Adhikari et al., 2015). There is a high demand for quantitative information on impacts of climate on crop yields, yield gaps and their variability in Ethiopia (Kassie et al., 2014). A country-wide yield gap analysis using an econometric model with a comprehensive data set was recently carried out by Mann and Warner (2017), who identified wheat yield gaps between 14 and 90% for different parts of the country. However, potential yield levels, possible effects of climate change and adaptation measures were not addressed. Examining the specific and combined contributions of genotype, environment and management to plant productivity and their application will be important to meet increasing demand and ensure food security. One of the most effective pathways to meet global needs to produce food is to focus on the interactions of genotype x environment x crop management. In a country like Ethiopia, where climate and soil resources are very diverse, plant models could play an important role in examining how changes in the environment, genotype, and management influence productivity under different climate scenarios. To achieve a sustainable improvement in wheat yield, gaps in yield must be identified, restrictions must be determined and measures to improve yield must be found under current and future climate scenarios.

The research objectives are: (i) to determine current potential yield, water limited potential yield and yield gap of wheat in the study areas, (ii) to identify production constraints that are most limiting to raise wheat productivity, (iii) to determine the degree of influence on wheat productivity due to climate change and variability and (iv) to identify best combinations of genotype, management, and environment options to enhance productivity under current and future climate scenarios.

Involved persons

• Assoc. Prof. Dr. Walelign Worku Ayele
• Abate Feyissa Senbeta

Involved institutions

• School of Plant and Horticultural Sciences, College of Agriculture

Sponsors

Supported by the DAAD program Bilateral SDG Graduate Schools, funded by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)